Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
